• Arca Análisis Económico

Goodbye, Angela, goodbye


Highlights


The federal elections of Germany for the period that begins in 2021 will be held before October 24, 2021. In those elections 709 deputies of the Bundestag will be elected, which in turn will elect the chancellor of Germany for the period 2021-2025. While at this time barely begin to identify candidates possible to replace Ms. Merkel, which itself is very clar to is the agenda of economic transformation that the person receiving the mandate of the German people will have to face.


The technological commitment made by Germany a few years ago and which took shape in the industrial park built inside and outside the country , has been excessively specialized, highly concentrated in hybrid technologies that are rapidly becoming obsolete, which makes the country highly vulnerable to Technology shocks.

The election of a new head of state is always a time when society pauses to reflect on the challenges of the future in the short and medium term, and in this sense Germany is no exception.


The federal elections of Germany of 2021 will be held before October 24, 2021. In them the 709 deputies of the Bundestag will be elected , which in turn will elect the chancellor of Germany for the period 2021-2025 . While at this time barely begin to identify candidates possible to replace Ms. Merkel, which itself is very clar to is the transformation agenda economic that l a person who receives the mandate of the German people will have to face.

Some experts, including Wolfgang Münchau , editor of the Financial Times in charge of covering the source of the European economy , argue that Germany's technological commitment a few years ago and which took shape in the industrial park built inside and outside the country , It has been overly specialized, highly concentrated in hybrid technologies that are rapidly becoming obsolete, which makes the country highly vulnerable to technological shocks .


In the words of Mr. Münchau : “ Germany's medium-sized industrial companies, the backbone of the economy, are still dealing with digitalization. The country has not made the necessary investments in mobile telecommunications. Deutsche Telekom, the largest mobile phone company in the country, now depends on Huawei to develop the next generation of equipment. The automotive industry was not ready for the switch to electric cars. And Mrs. Merkel's decision to eliminate nuclear power plants has made Germany more dependent on fossil fuels, which has put the country on the road to losing the climate goals of the Paris Agreement . The Bundeswehr , the German armed forces, is in such a decrepit state that is no longer apt for its purpose, according to a report by the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces ".


This brief diagnosis suggests that the next chancellor should promote significant investments in new, environmentally friendly technologies, including the defense sector, which should live up to what is expected of a Western world power.


To achieve this transformation, the country needs to break several paradigms. The first of these is the obsession of politicians and voters to maintain fiscal surpluses. Addressing a technological shock requires significant investments in creating conditions for the private sector to experiment and innovate. Fortunately, the country can go to international financial markets to issue debt under advantageous conditions, exploiting the fact that it is a low-debt economy.


However, the biggest challenge as always is not to find the funds to change the destiny of a country, but to identify the emerging technologies that will drive the growth of the planet in the coming decades and go for them.


Mrs. Merkel leaves a difficult future as an inheritance, and whoever succeeds her can be covered with glory by leading a long-required change, or continuing to lead the Germans along the path of despair. Goodbye, Mr. to Merkel, would you miss?

© 2015 Arca Análisis Económico

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